A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
